March Portolio and Market Review

Wow, what a week! Since I first invested in August 1987 and subsequently endured Black Monday in October 1987 (when the stock market dropped 25% in a single day), I have not seen a week as volatile and downright devastating to global stock markets.

Fortunately, our Recession Portfolios held up very well, but not quite as good as I prefer. During this past week, the S&P 500 lost -12.4%. In contrast, our average portfolio was down -3.0%. We beat the S&P 500 by 9.4% this week – not too shabby.

Corona virus impact: If we continue to see cases arise in the U.S., buckle up for continued stock market declines. My significant concern now is this worldwide event MIGHT bring on the Recession I’ve forecasted for the past 12 months. Why? Because the global economy was already weak, and now supply and distribution channels are being SEVERELY disrupted. With China being affected the most (manufacturing data on Friday showed the largest contraction on record), this global impact could be downright devastating.

I sincerely appreciate your trust and confidence in our Firm, especially as we positioned ourselves for a SIGNIFICANT market decline in 2020 back in May 2019, which until recently, seemed like the musings of a madman!